Morgantown, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

546
FXUS61 KPBZ 220547
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1247 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake enhanced snow showers will continue to decrease in coverage
and intensity, mostly ending by sunrise on Sunday. With the
exception of late Monday and Tuesday morning, dry conditions are
largely expected next week with an increasing trend in
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Lake enhanced snow showers will continue to decrease in
  coverage and intensity through the night.
- Cold overnight lows in the from the upper single digits into
  the middle teens.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Have allowed the Advisory to expire at midnight as radar trends
are on a weakening path and giving way to light snow showers as
the feeder band from Huron and Erie disconnects and dissipates.
With departure of a shortwave that provided reinvigoration of
the band, don`t expect any further impactful snow. Latest PIT
ACARS soundings are showing drying of the low-levels and
sinking subsidence which is going to further aid in suppression
of organized snow bands overnight.

Also of note... most of the region will see morning lows
between 10 and 16 degrees, with some single digits north of
I-80 and on the higher ridges. As a result, some ice formation
is possible on any roads that currently remain wet, especially
untreated roads. Even a few treated roads may see a bit of ice
in the colder locations, as brine solutions start to lose a bit
of effectiveness at these temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cold and dry Sunday and Monday morning.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

By Sunday, high pressure is expected to be just to the north of
the forecast area as the core of the coldest air finally
descends on the Upper OH Valley. Temperatures in our far
northeastern counties advertise a 60% to 80% chance of less than
10 degrees for a low Sunday morning. Its even colder for Monday
morning as the probs in the northeast (Forest County) now
increases to around 90% but also showing around 40% for the
ridges and south into the WV counties. Highs are expected to be
below normal for Sunday but the air mass will modify
significantly after a cold morning on Monday as highs soar into
the low 40s. The NBM ensemble suggests a 40% to 60% probability
of high temperatures above 40 degrees for Monday. This provides
quite a shift in temperatures just before Christmas.

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate flat mid-level ridging
moving across the Upper Ohio Valley on Monday, with continued dry
weather likely. Warm advection and rising heights should lead to
the previously discussed warmer temperatures, with max values
perhaps around 10 degrees higher than Sunday, depending on how
quickly clouds thicken ahead of the next system.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Generally light precipitation appears likely Monday night into
  Christmas Eve day, with a minor snow accumulation possible
  north of Pittsburgh.
- A warming trend and lower precipitation chances may follow for
  Christmas Day through the end of the week.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

A fairly weak shortwave appears most likely to cross the area Monday
night into Christmas Eve day. Model clustering shows generally minor
differences in strength and timing, but most agree that QPF will
generally be light and focused north of Pittsburgh closer to the
wave track. Probabilities of accumulating snow are being modulated
by temperature, with highs likely in the mid to upper 30s from
Pittsburgh north and in the ridges, and in the lower 40s to the
south. These likelihoods range from near 10 percent at Zanesville,
to 40 percent at Pittsburgh, and 90 percent at DuBois.
Probabilities of an inch or more remain confined to areas north
of I-80 and max out at around 40-50%. This would be the area
that has the best chance of having an inch of snow on the ground
come Christmas morning, but the above-freezing temperature
could play a role in limiting snow depth.

Thereafter, ensembles continue to show good probabilities of ridging
during the midweek period, which will continue the warming trend
through Christmas Day and the remainder of the week. Temperatures
could perhaps rise to around 10 degrees above normal by Friday. A
minority of ensemble members are showing lower heights/flatter
ridging, perhaps leading to less of a warmup. Along with the
warming, the majority model opinion would lead to fairly low chances
of light precipitation at best for the second half of the holiday
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Winds will lighten from the northwest through the early morning
hours with high pressure moving in overhead. The NBM
probabilities are showing some 80% to 90% prob of MVFR cigs but
roughly 40% to 50% prob for all terminals besides ZZV and HGL.
Thus, have put a brief period of MVFR and IFR through dawn. Most
places will lift to VFR by 12Z or shortly afterward. The sites
at FKL and DUJ may hang onto MVFR a tad longer but should
improve by 18Z.

Most guidance maintains scattered coverage, with high
confidence in lifting and scattering after noon-time. Winds will
become light throughout the day as high pressure sits overhead.


Outlook...
VFR under the influence of high pressure is favored for Monday before
the next upper level system crosses into the region Monday night into
Tuesday, bringing another round of light snow and areawide
restrictions.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...MLB/CL
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger/88
LONG TERM...Shallenberger/88
AVIATION...Milcarek/Shallenberger