Morgantown, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

373
FXUS61 KPBZ 130901 AAA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
501 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight as a cold
front crosses the region. The front will slowly exit on Thursday,
through a few showers or thunderstorms will still be possible south
of Interstate 80. Mainly dry weather is then expected Thursday night
through Saturday as high pressure builds in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and thunderstorms today
- Locally heavy downpours possible
---------------------------------------------------------------

A lead shortwave trough will cross the region early this
morning, with the main upper support focused north of PIT.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue with this initial wave,
with elevated instability in place. Latest mesoanalysis shows
the Showalter index from -1 to -2 across eastern OH into Wrn PA.

After a brief break, another shortwave trough will approach and
cross the Upper Ohio Valley region this afternoon and evening.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
through the day as this shortwave crosses the region. The
associated surface cold front will also begin to drop sewd
across the region this afternoon, reaching the I-80 corridor by
evening. Current HREF MU CAPE values indicate 1500-2000 j/kg by
this afternoon with building diurnal instability. Expected 0-6km
shear is expected to be 20-25kt, with stronger flow north of
the area. With increasing moisture, models continue the trend of
a lack of dry air aloft as well. This should result in a
minimal potential for gusty wind.

PWATs are expected to increase to between 1.8 and 2.0 through
the day. Some localized downpours are possible, though with dry
antecedent conditions, expect minimal potential for isolated
flooding.

With cloud cover and precip, temperatures should generally
range from around 80 to the mid 80s for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A few lingering showers/storm Thursday south of I-80
- Generally dry Thursday night through Friday night
----------------------------------------------------------------

Expect shower and thunderstorm coverage to gradually decrease
this evening as the main shortwave exits, and diurnal
instability wanes. The surface front is progged to continue to
drift southward across the area overnight, maintaining some
chance for showers. Elevated instability is also expected to be
in place, and this could also result in a lingering
thunderstorm. Otherwise, some patchy fog and stratus should
develop with low level moisture in place.

A secondary weak shortwave is progged to cross the region on
Thursday, as the front advances slowly southward. This will
keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms for areas south of
I-80, with the highest probability south of PIT. Shower/storm
chances should quickly end by Thursday evening as the front
pushes further south, and surface high pressure begins to build
in.

Generally dry weather is then expected through Friday night as
surface high pressure builds in under WNW flow aloft.
Temperatures and humidity levels are expected to be lower than
recent days on Thursday. HIghs on Friday should return to the
mid 80s to near 90 for much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and hot for areas outside of the ridges Saturday
- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Sunday
- Mainly dry and hot Monday
- Showers and thunderstorm possible Tuesday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Model ensembles indicate an upper high will set up across the
SE and central CONUS on Saturday. The Upper Ohio Valley region
is expected to be on the NE periphery of the high, with mainly
dry and hot conditions. The exception will be in the ridges,
where a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms are possible.

The high is then expected to retrograde westward Sunday through
the middle part of next week. This would result in NW flow
across the Upper Ohio Valley region. A shortwave embedded in
this flow, and an associated surface cold front, are expected
to cross the area on Sunday, with shower and thunderstorm
chances returning. High pressure should return dry weather to
the region on Monday. Models differ on the timing and strength
of another shortwave on Tuesday. The ensemble blend maintains
some chance POPs for showers/storms, and given the uncertainty,
this appears reasonable.

The hottest portion of the long term period is expected over
the weekend, when the maximum 500 mb heights over the region.
With a lowering of the heights under NW flow, temperatures are
expected to gradually lower through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The bulk of ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity to start
the TAF period is focused across northern Ohio (near the shores
of Lake Erie) and across northern West Virginia (south and
southeast of MGW), per latest radar and satellite imagery.
Expect this activity to generally drift eastward through the
remainder of the night, potentially bringing instances of rain
and possibly a few rumbles of thunder to area terminals through
early and mid morning hours.

A brief lull in activity occurs mid to late morning, per latest
hi-res model solutions, followed by additional thunderstorm
development this afternoon and evening. While coverage appears
to stay relatively scattered, expect local reductions in
cigs/vsbys and possibly some gusty winds at any impacted
terminals.

Confidence in low ceilings outside of convection remains low as
models may be overdoing the amount of moistening that occurs.
Therefore, kept mention of MVFR ceilings tied to convection and
contained within PROB30s and TEMPOs, with low-end VFR otherwise
prevailing. By the evening, as convection settles down with the
loss of daytime heating, ceilings should become widespread VFR
with higher confidence.

Outlook... Thursday, a chance for showers and associated
restrictions return as the weak cold front slowly moves through
our region. A downward trend in rain potential and increasing
confidence in prevailing VFR is favored to end the week as high
pressure develops near New England.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Cermak/Lupo/AK