Morgantown, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

783
FXUS61 KPBZ 051059
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
659 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain and snow shower chances have increased especially north of
Pittsburgh on Monday. Otherwise, no major changes to the
forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers through early morning, then much cooler

2) Cooler with scattered rain and snow showers Monday and
Monday night

3) Dry and warmer mid to late week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A cold front will continue to cross the region early this
morning, and should be east of the area by 6 AM. Showers will
continue in the vicinity of the front, tapering off from west
to east a few hours after FROPA. Instability has diminished so
thunder is no longer expected. Dry weather is then expected the
rest of the day. Temperatures are then expected to remain
nearly steady through the day, and should be 30-35 degrees
cooler than Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A shortwave is expected to drop SE across the Great Lakes and
Upper Ohio Valley region Monday into Monday night. Daytime
boundary layer temperatures should be warm enough for mainly
rain, though some snow could mix in early Monday morning with
850 mb temperatures -3 to -5 deg C. Scattered rain showers
should change to snow showers Monday night, mainly north of PIT
and in the ridges, though no significant accumulation is
expected with moisture limited in the dendritic growth zone.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Model ensembles indicate the flow aloft should become more
zonal from mid to late week, with rising 500 mb heights. This
should result in dry weather and a warming trend from mid to
late week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Light rain and MVFR/IFR ceilings will exit by 15z this morning
in conjunction with an exiting mid-level shortwave plus
intruding drier air.

A mix of low VFR to high MVFR stratocu within the post-frontal
WNW cold advection regime is favored through the early afternoon
before lift/subsidence either erode and raise most cig heights
to VFR. The exception is occasional light rain
showers/sprinkles that could develop near FKL/DUJ due to
additional mid-level shortwave movement lifting and squeezing
out the rest of the area`s moisture. Otherwise, expect west to
northwest winds gusting between 20 to 30kts through the evening
before backing and weakening as the surface pressure gradient
wanes overnight.

Outlook...
A reinforcing shot of cold air with another shortwave passage
Monday will create scattered rain/snow showers that likely
reintroduces mainly MVFR ceilings for the late morning/early
afternoon period.

Lingering periods of restrictions within cooler NW flow into
Tuesday morning dissipates by Tuesday afternoon with increasing
subsidence and building surface high pressure. This VFR period
is likely to persist into the late week/early weekend timeframe
when the pattern becomes more active again.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...Frazier